Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers

All Detroit Pistons predictions · All Philadelphia 76ers predictions

NBA · Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 106-93

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Detroit Pistons won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit PistonsPhiladelphia 76ers
BetMGM -140 +115
BetRivers -130 +108
DraftKings -130 +110
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -130 +110
Hard Rock Bet -125 +105
Novig -122 +120
Caesars -130 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pistons −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 76ers −2.5
Detroit Pistons covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 228.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 227.5
Under 228.5 (199 scored)
Spread by book Pistons76ers
BetMGM −1.5 -118 +1.5 -102
BetRivers −1.5 -115 +1.5 -106
DraftKings −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
ESPN BET −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Fanatics −2 -110 +2 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -115 +1.5 -105
Caesars −2 -115 +2 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
BetRivers 229.5 -113 229.5 -108
DraftKings 228.5 -115 228.5 -105
ESPN BET 228.5 -115 228.5 -105
Fanatics 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
FanDuel 228.5 -105 228.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 228.5 -110 228.5 -110
Caesars 229 -115 229 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit PistonsPhiladelphia 76ers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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