Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Kings at New York Rangers

All Los Angeles Kings predictions · All New York Rangers predictions

NHL · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 6-3

The model's call
New York Rangers to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Los Angeles Kings won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles KingsNew York Rangers
BetMGM +110 -130
BetRivers +114 -134
DraftKings +110 -130
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +105 -126
Hard Rock Bet +105 -135
Novig +120 -122
Caesars +110 -130

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 33.3% to cover · 7 books
Los Angeles Kings covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (9 scored)
Spread by book KingsRangers
BetMGM +1.5 -225 −1.5 +185
BetRivers +1.5 -240 −1.5 +188
DraftKings +1.5 -230 −1.5 +190
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -235 −1.5 +185
FanDuel +1.5 -230 −1.5 +184
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
BetRivers 5.5 -122 5.5 +100
DraftKings 5.5 -118 5.5 -102
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -114 5.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -120 5.5 -104

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles KingsNew York Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.7% 54.3%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 55.0%
Kalshi contract price 46.0% 54.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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