Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Red Wings at Edmonton Oilers

All Detroit Red Wings predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 9:38 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 61.2%
Books consensus 61.2%
Result Detroit Red Wings won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit Red WingsEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +160 -190
DraftKings +142 -170
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +146 -178
Hard Rock Bet +140 -180
Novig +156 -160
Caesars +151 -179

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Oilers −1.5
priced 40.8% to cover · 7 books
Detroit Red Wings covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 53.9% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book Red WingsOilers
BetMGM +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -167 −1.5 +133
DraftKings +1.5 -162 −1.5 +136
ESPN BET +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
Fanatics +1.5 -165 −1.5 +135
FanDuel +1.5 -164 −1.5 +134
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
BetRivers 6.5 -129 6.5 +102
DraftKings 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
ESPN BET 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 -125 6.5 +105
FanDuel 6.5 -132 6.5 +108
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 6.5 -129 6.5 +105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit Red WingsEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.8% 61.2%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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