Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Charlotte Hornets predictions

NBA · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 103-110

The model's call
Charlotte Hornets to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Result Charlotte Hornets won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington WizardsCharlotte Hornets
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +130 -157
DraftKings +120 -142
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +124 -146
Hard Rock Bet +120 -145
Novig +141 -144
Caesars +126 -150

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hornets −2.5
priced 50.8% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
Charlotte Hornets covered −2.5
Total · closing
O/U 225.5
priced 51.1% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 228.5
Under 225.5 (213 scored)
Spread by book WizardsHornets
BetMGM +2.5 -105 −2.5 -115
BetRivers +3.5 -114 −3.5 -107
DraftKings +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
ESPN BET +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Fanatics +3 -110 −3 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -108 −2.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Caesars +2.5 -105 −2.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 226.5 -105 226.5 -115
BetRivers 226.5 -109 226.5 -112
DraftKings 225.5 -108 225.5 -112
ESPN BET 224.5 -115 224.5 -105
Fanatics 226 -110 226 -110
FanDuel 226.5 -106 226.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 225.5 -115 225.5 -105
Caesars 225.5 -115 225.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington WizardsCharlotte Hornets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.5% 57.5%
Best book price incl. vig 41.5% 58.7%
Kalshi contract price 41.2% 58.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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