Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics

All Chicago Bulls predictions · All Boston Celtics predictions

NBA · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 7:40 PM · Final: 99-134

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 85.1%
Books consensus 85.1%
Result Boston Celtics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago BullsBoston Celtics
BetMGM +525 -750
BetRivers +540 -835
DraftKings +525 -750
ESPN BET +500 -800
Fanatics +550 -800
FanDuel +480 -650
Hard Rock Bet +550 -800
Novig +590 -614
Caesars +550 -800

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −14.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Celtics −13.5
Boston Celtics covered −14.5
Total · closing
O/U 233.5
priced 48.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 233.5 (233 scored)
Spread by book BullsCeltics
BetMGM +14.5 -115 −14.5 -105
BetRivers +14.5 -108 −14.5 -113
DraftKings +14.5 -115 −14.5 -105
ESPN BET +14.5 -115 −14.5 -105
Fanatics +14.5 -115 −14.5 -105
FanDuel +13.5 -104 −13.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet +14.5 -110 −14.5 -110
Caesars +15 -120 −15 +100
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
BetRivers 233.5 -112 233.5 -109
DraftKings 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
ESPN BET 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
Fanatics 233 -110 233 -110
FanDuel 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 232.5 -115 232.5 -105
Caesars 233 -110 233 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago BullsBoston Celtics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 14.9% 85.1%
Best book price incl. vig 14.5% 86.0%
Kalshi contract price 13.5% 86.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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