Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers

All Minnesota Timberwolves predictions · All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions

NBA · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 7:13 PM · Final: 125-127

The model's call
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Model confidence 57.8%
Books consensus 57.8%
Result Cleveland Cavaliers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota TimberwolvesCleveland Cavaliers
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +123 -150
DraftKings +130 -155
ESPN BET +130 -150
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +122 -144
Hard Rock Bet +125 -145
Novig +138 -141
Caesars +122 -145

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cavaliers −3.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Cavaliers −4.5
Minnesota Timberwolves covered +3.5
Total · closing
O/U 234.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 232.5
Over 234.5 (252 scored)
Spread by book TimberwolvesCavaliers
BetMGM +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
BetRivers +2.5 -105 −2.5 -117
DraftKings +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
ESPN BET +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Fanatics +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
FanDuel +3.5 -114 −3.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Caesars +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
BetRivers 234.5 -109 234.5 -112
DraftKings 234.5 -108 234.5 -112
ESPN BET 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
Fanatics 234 -110 234 -110
FanDuel 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Caesars 234.5 -110 234.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota TimberwolvesCleveland Cavaliers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.2% 57.8%
Best book price incl. vig 42.0% 58.5%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record