Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks

All Indiana Pacers predictions · All Milwaukee Bucks predictions

NBA · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 102-110

The model's call
Indiana Pacers to win
Model confidence 58.3%
Books consensus 58.3%
Result Milwaukee Bucks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Indiana PacersMilwaukee Bucks
BetMGM -155 +125
BetRivers -162 +132
DraftKings -155 +130
ESPN BET -150 +130
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -154 +130
Hard Rock Bet -160 +135
Novig -141 +135
Caesars -155 +130

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pacers −3.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Pacers −4.5
Milwaukee Bucks covered +3.5
Total · closing
O/U 239.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Under 239.5 (212 scored)
Spread by book PacersBucks
BetMGM −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
BetRivers −3.5 -112 +3.5 -109
DraftKings −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
ESPN BET −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
Fanatics −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
FanDuel −3.5 -105 +3.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −3.5 -105 +3.5 -115
Caesars −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 239.5 -110 239.5 -110
BetRivers 239.5 -107 239.5 -114
DraftKings 239.5 -108 239.5 -112
ESPN BET 239.5 -110 239.5 -110
Fanatics 239.5 -110 239.5 -110
FanDuel 239.5 -118 239.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet 239.5 -110 239.5 -110
Caesars 239.5 -105 239.5 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Indiana PacersMilwaukee Bucks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.3% 41.7%
Best book price incl. vig 58.5% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 58.3% 41.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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