Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz

All Memphis Grizzlies predictions · All Utah Jazz predictions

NBA · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 9:12 PM · Final: 110-105

The model's call
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Memphis Grizzlies won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Memphis GrizzliesUtah Jazz
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -125 +102
DraftKings -112 -108
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -116 -102
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Novig -115 +113
Caesars -125 +105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Grizzlies −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Jazz −1.5
Memphis Grizzlies covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 237.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 238.5
Under 237.5 (215 scored)
Spread by book GrizzliesJazz
BetMGM −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
BetRivers −1.5 -109 +1.5 -112
DraftKings −1.5 -102 +1.5 -118
ESPN BET −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Fanatics −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -106 +1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Caesars −1 -115 +1 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
BetRivers 237.5 -113 237.5 -108
DraftKings 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
ESPN BET 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Fanatics 237 -110 237 -110
FanDuel 237.5 -105 237.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Caesars 237.5 -110 237.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Memphis GrizzliesUtah Jazz
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.8% 46.9%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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