Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers

All Philadelphia 76ers predictions · All Indiana Pacers predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 7:13 PM · Final: 114-109

The model's call
Philadelphia 76ers to win
Model confidence 70.4%
Books consensus 70.4%
Result Philadelphia 76ers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia 76ersIndiana Pacers
BetMGM -275 +220
BetRivers -295 +235
DraftKings -278 +225
ESPN BET -275 +225
Fanatics -275 +220
FanDuel -260 +215
Hard Rock Bet -275 +230
Novig -239 +233
Caesars -305 +240

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
76ers −7.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 76ers −1.5
Indiana Pacers covered +7.5
Total · closing
O/U 234.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 237.5
Under 234.5 (223 scored)
Spread by book 76ersPacers
BetMGM −7.5 -110 +7.5 -110
BetRivers −8.5 -107 +8.5 -114
DraftKings −7.5 -115 +7.5 -105
ESPN BET −7.5 -115 +7.5 -105
Fanatics −7.5 -110 +7.5 -110
FanDuel −7.5 -105 +7.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −7.5 -115 +7.5 -105
Caesars −7.5 -110 +7.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
BetRivers 234.5 -109 234.5 -112
DraftKings 234.5 -112 234.5 -108
ESPN BET 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Fanatics 234.5 -105 234.5 -115
FanDuel 234.5 -105 234.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Caesars 234.5 -110 234.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia 76ersIndiana Pacers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 70.4% 29.6%
Best book price incl. vig 70.5% 29.4%
Kalshi contract price 70.5% 29.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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