San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves
MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 2-3
The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 55.0%
Books consensus 55.0%
Result Atlanta Braves won
model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 46.5% | 53.5% |
| Markets average | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts
involve risk; this is not investment advice.