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Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 8:06 PM

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers
BetMGM +140 -170
BetRivers +145 -175
DraftKings +138 -167
ESPN BET +145 -170
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +142 -168
Hard Rock Bet +145 -170
Caesars +140 -165

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Chicago White SoxTexas Rangers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.8% 60.2%
Best book price incl. vig 40.8% 62.3%
Kalshi contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.5% 61.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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