Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers

All Columbus Blue Jackets predictions · All Philadelphia Flyers predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7:10 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Columbus Blue Jackets to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Columbus Blue Jackets won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Columbus Blue JacketsPhiladelphia Flyers
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -121 +102
DraftKings -120 +100
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -122 +102
Hard Rock Bet -125 -105
Novig -111 +108
Caesars -118 +100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blue Jackets −1.5
priced 30.9% to cover · 7 books
Philadelphia Flyers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book Blue JacketsFlyers
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers −1.5 +210 +1.5 -275
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +205 +1.5 -260
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -118 5.5 -102
BetRivers 5.5 -112 5.5 -110
DraftKings 5.5 -118 5.5 -102
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -118 5.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -117 5.5 -106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Columbus Blue JacketsPhiladelphia Flyers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.6% 48.1%
Kalshi contract price 52.3% 47.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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