Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Kings at Chicago Blackhawks

All Los Angeles Kings predictions · All Chicago Blackhawks predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 1-2

The model's call
Chicago Blackhawks to win
Model confidence 50.7%
Books consensus 50.7%
Result Chicago Blackhawks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles KingsChicago Blackhawks
BetMGM -110 -110
BetRivers -110 -108
DraftKings -108 -112
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -106 -113
Hard Rock Bet -110 -120
Novig +102 -106
Caesars -106 -112

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blackhawks −1.5
priced 30.7% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened Kings −1.5
Los Angeles Kings covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 54.3% over · 8 books
Under 5.5 (3 scored)
Spread by book KingsBlackhawks
BetMGM +1.5 -275 −1.5 +200
BetRivers −1.5 +230 +1.5 -295
DraftKings +1.5 -278 −1.5 +225
ESPN BET +1.5 -325 −1.5 +220
Fanatics +1.5 -270 −1.5 +210
FanDuel +1.5 -265 −1.5 +210
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -140 5.5 +105
BetRivers 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
DraftKings 5.5 -135 5.5 +114
ESPN BET 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -132 5.5 +108
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Caesars 5.5 -134 5.5 +110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles KingsChicago Blackhawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 49.3% 50.7%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 51.5%
Kalshi contract price 49.2% 50.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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