Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets

All Florida Panthers predictions · All Winnipeg Jets predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 8:09 PM · Final: 5-1

The model's call
Florida Panthers to win
Model confidence 53.3%
Books consensus 53.3%
Result Florida Panthers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Florida PanthersWinnipeg Jets
BetMGM -130 +110
BetRivers -136 +114
DraftKings -125 +105
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -128 +106
Hard Rock Bet -130 +100
Novig -115 +113
Caesars -129 +109

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Panthers −1.5
priced 33.0% to cover · 7 books
Florida Panthers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 55.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Over 5.5 (6 scored)
Spread by book PanthersJets
BetMGM −1.5 +185 +1.5 -225
BetRivers −1.5 +188 +1.5 -240
DraftKings −1.5 +190 +1.5 -230
ESPN BET −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
Fanatics −1.5 +190 +1.5 -240
FanDuel −1.5 +190 +1.5 -240
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 5.5 -137 5.5 +110
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 5.5 -135 5.5 +115
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -145 5.5 +115
Caesars 6 -120 6 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Florida PanthersWinnipeg Jets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.3% 46.7%
Best book price incl. vig 53.5% 46.7%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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