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Montréal Canadiens at St Louis Blues

All Montréal Canadiens predictions · All St Louis Blues predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 2-0

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 51.9%
Books consensus 51.9%
Result Montréal Canadiens won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Montréal CanadiensSt Louis Blues
BetMGM -115 -110
BetRivers -115 -104
DraftKings -120 +100
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -126 +105
Hard Rock Bet -115 -115
Novig -115 +113
Caesars -117 +100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Canadiens −1.5
priced 31.3% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
opened Blues −1.5
Montréal Canadiens covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 46.8% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 6.5 (2 scored)
Spread by book CanadiensBlues
BetMGM −1.5 +195 +1.5 -275
BetRivers +1.5 -315 −1.5 +240
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +215 +1.5 -290
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +184 +1.5 -230
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -102 6.5 -130
BetRivers 6.5 +104 6.5 -129
DraftKings 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
ESPN BET 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Fanatics 6.5 +105 6.5 -125
FanDuel 6.5 +106 6.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
Caesars 6 -122 6 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Montréal CanadiensSt Louis Blues
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.9% 48.1%
Best book price incl. vig 52.4% 46.9%
Kalshi contract price 53.0% 47.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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