Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Utah Mammoth

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Utah Mammoth predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 9:10 PM · Final: 3-1

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 51.7%
Books consensus 51.7%
Result Minnesota Wild won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Minnesota WildUtah Mammoth
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers +102 -122
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -104 -115
Hard Rock Bet -105 -125
Novig +106 -108
Caesars -102 -115

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mammoth −1.5
priced 31.7% to cover · 7 books
Minnesota Wild covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.0% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book WildMammoth
BetMGM +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
BetRivers +1.5 -265 −1.5 +200
DraftKings +1.5 -250 −1.5 +205
ESPN BET +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -255 −1.5 +200
FanDuel +1.5 -260 −1.5 +205
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -250 −1.5 +180
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
BetRivers 6.5 +100 6.5 -122
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 -104 6.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 +100 6.5 -122

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Minnesota WildUtah Mammoth
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.3% 51.7%
Best book price incl. vig 48.5% 51.9%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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