Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks

All Buffalo Sabres predictions · All San Jose Sharks predictions

NHL · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 10:40 PM · Final: 2-0

The model's call
Buffalo Sabres to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Result Buffalo Sabres won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Buffalo SabresSan Jose Sharks
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -155 +130
DraftKings -155 +130
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -150 +125
Hard Rock Bet -155 +120
Novig -144 +138
Caesars -145 +124

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Sabres −1.5
priced 37.2% to cover · 7 books
Buffalo Sabres covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 55.6% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Under 6.5 (2 scored)
Spread by book SabresSharks
BetMGM −1.5 +155 +1.5 -190
BetRivers −1.5 +155 +1.5 -195
DraftKings −1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
ESPN BET −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
Fanatics −1.5 +160 +1.5 -200
FanDuel −1.5 +142 +1.5 -176
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
BetRivers 6.5 -139 6.5 +112
DraftKings 6.5 -142 6.5 +120
ESPN BET 6.5 -135 6.5 +115
Fanatics 6.5 -140 6.5 +115
FanDuel 6.5 -142 6.5 +116
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 7 +107 7 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Buffalo SabresSan Jose Sharks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.5% 42.5%
Best book price incl. vig 59.0% 42.0%
Kalshi contract price 58.1% 41.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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