Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks

All Detroit Pistons predictions · All New York Knicks predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 8:13 PM · Final: 97-111

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 60.9%
Books consensus 60.9%
Result New York Knicks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit PistonsNew York Knicks
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +150 -182
DraftKings +145 -175
ESPN BET +140 -165
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +146 -174
Hard Rock Bet +155 -180
Novig +156 -160
Caesars +143 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −4.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Knicks −3.5
New York Knicks covered −4.5
Total · closing
O/U 220.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 218.5
Under 220.5 (208 scored)
Spread by book PistonsKnicks
BetMGM +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
BetRivers +4.5 -113 −4.5 -108
DraftKings +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
ESPN BET +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Fanatics +4 -110 −4 -110
FanDuel +4.5 -114 −4.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +4.5 -115 −4.5 -105
Caesars +4 -110 −4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
BetRivers 220.5 -112 220.5 -109
DraftKings 220.5 -112 220.5 -108
ESPN BET 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
Fanatics 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
FanDuel 219.5 -112 219.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 220.5 -110 220.5 -110
Caesars 220 -110 220 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit PistonsNew York Knicks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.1% 60.9%
Best book price incl. vig 39.1% 61.5%
Kalshi contract price 39.1% 60.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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