Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics

All Brooklyn Nets predictions · All Boston Celtics predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 7:41 PM · Final: 124-125

The model's call
Boston Celtics to win
Model confidence 84.7%
Books consensus 84.7%
Result Boston Celtics won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Brooklyn NetsBoston Celtics
BetMGM +475 -650
BetRivers +525 -770
DraftKings +525 -750
ESPN BET +450 -700
Fanatics +525 -750
FanDuel +500 -700
Hard Rock Bet +525 -750
Novig +614 -641
Caesars +500 -700

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Celtics −13.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Celtics −11.5
Brooklyn Nets covered +13.5
Total · closing
O/U 223.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 221.5
Over 223.5 (249 scored)
Spread by book NetsCeltics
BetMGM +12.5 -105 −12.5 -115
BetRivers +13.5 -114 −13.5 -107
DraftKings +13.5 -115 −13.5 -105
ESPN BET +12.5 -105 −12.5 -115
Fanatics +13 -110 −13 -110
FanDuel +12.5 -106 −12.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +13.5 -115 −13.5 +100
Caesars +13.5 -115 −13.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 223.5 -105 223.5 -115
BetRivers 224.5 -112 224.5 -109
DraftKings 223.5 -112 223.5 -108
ESPN BET 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Fanatics 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
FanDuel 222.5 -114 222.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Caesars 224 -110 224 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Brooklyn NetsBoston Celtics
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 15.3% 84.7%
Best book price incl. vig 14.0% 86.5%
Kalshi contract price 15.4% 84.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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