Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

All Sacramento Kings predictions · All San Antonio Spurs predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 8:15 PM · Final: 103-130

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 91.3%
Books consensus 91.3%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Sacramento KingsSan Antonio Spurs
BetMGM +950 -2000
BetRivers +1000 -2500
DraftKings +1000 -1800
ESPN BET +1000 -2000
Fanatics +1000 -1800
FanDuel +870 -1500
Hard Rock Bet +1000 -2000
Novig +1150 -1233
Caesars +1050 -2000

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −18.5
priced 51.2% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
San Antonio Spurs covered −18.5
Total · closing
O/U 232.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 230.5
Over 232.5 (233 scored)
Spread by book KingsSpurs
BetMGM +18.5 -105 −18.5 -115
BetRivers +18.5 -104 −18.5 -117
DraftKings +19.5 -118 −19.5 -102
ESPN BET +18.5 +100 −18.5 -120
Fanatics +19 -110 −19 -110
FanDuel +18.5 -105 −18.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +19.5 -115 −19.5 -105
Caesars +19 -110 −19 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
BetRivers 234.5 -106 234.5 -115
DraftKings 232.5 -108 232.5 -112
ESPN BET 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Fanatics 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
FanDuel 232.5 -105 232.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Caesars 233 -110 233 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Sacramento KingsSan Antonio Spurs
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 8.7% 91.3%
Best book price incl. vig 8.0% 92.5%
Kalshi contract price 8.4% 91.6%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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