Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers

All Portland Trail Blazers predictions · All Los Angeles Lakers predictions

NBA · Tuesday, October 27, 2026 · 11:10 PM · Final: 136-129

The model's call
Los Angeles Lakers to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Result Portland Trail Blazers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Portland Trail BlazersLos Angeles Lakers
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +110 -132
DraftKings +100 -120
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +108 -126
Hard Rock Bet +105 -125
Novig +111 -113
Caesars +100 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Lakers −1.5
priced 50.9% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Lakers −2.5
Portland Trail Blazers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 233.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 235.5
Over 233.5 (265 scored)
Spread by book Trail BlazersLakers
BetMGM +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
BetRivers +1.5 -105 −1.5 -117
DraftKings +1.5 -108 −1.5 -112
ESPN BET +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Fanatics +2 -110 −2 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -106 −1.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 232.5 -115 232.5 -105
BetRivers 232.5 -114 232.5 -107
DraftKings 233.5 -108 233.5 -112
ESPN BET 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Fanatics 233 -110 233 -110
FanDuel 233.5 -106 233.5 -114
Hard Rock Bet 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
Caesars 233.5 -110 233.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Portland Trail BlazersLos Angeles Lakers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.8% 52.2%
Best book price incl. vig 47.4% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 46.5% 53.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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