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San Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals

MLB · Monday, July 20, 2026 · 7:41 PM

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 52.6%
Books consensus 52.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book San Francisco GiantsKansas City Royals
BetMGM +105 -125
BetRivers -104 -113
DraftKings +102 -123
ESPN BET +105 -125
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +102 -120
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Caesars +105 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue San Francisco GiantsKansas City Royals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.4% 52.6%
Best book price incl. vig 48.8% 53.1%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 52.5%
Polymarket contract price 47.5% 52.5%
Markets average 48.0% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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