Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers

All Calgary Flames predictions · All Edmonton Oilers predictions

NHL · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 8:45 PM · Final: 0-4

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 62.3%
Books consensus 62.3%
Result Edmonton Oilers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Calgary FlamesEdmonton Oilers
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +163 -195
DraftKings +154 -185
ESPN BET +155 -185
Fanatics +155 -190
FanDuel +152 -184
Hard Rock Bet +150 -195
Novig +170 -174
Caesars +153 -182

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Oilers −1.5
priced 41.7% to cover · 7 books
Edmonton Oilers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 49.5% over · 8 books
Under 6.5 (4 scored)
Spread by book FlamesOilers
BetMGM +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
BetRivers +1.5 -157 −1.5 +125
DraftKings +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
ESPN BET +1.5 -165 −1.5 +140
Fanatics +1.5 -150 −1.5 +125
FanDuel +1.5 -160 −1.5 +130
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -165 −1.5 +130
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -117 6.5 -107
DraftKings 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -111 6.5 -111

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Calgary FlamesEdmonton Oilers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.7% 62.3%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 36.9% 63.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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