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New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions

NHL · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 9:08 PM · Final: 2-5

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 57.5%
Books consensus 57.5%
Result Colorado Avalanche won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Jersey DevilsColorado Avalanche
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +128 -152
DraftKings +124 -148
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +126 -152
Hard Rock Bet +115 -150
Novig +135 -141
Caesars +127 -155

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Avalanche −1.5
priced 36.6% to cover · 7 books
Colorado Avalanche covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 48.9% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book DevilsAvalanche
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
ESPN BET +1.5 -210 −1.5 +170
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -205 −1.5 +164
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -112 6.5 -112
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +100 6.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -107 6.5 -118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Jersey DevilsColorado Avalanche
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.5% 57.5%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 58.5%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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