Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers

All Washington Wizards predictions · All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 111-121

The model's call
Cleveland Cavaliers to win
Model confidence 76.4%
Books consensus 76.4%
Result Cleveland Cavaliers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Washington WizardsCleveland Cavaliers
BetMGM +310 -400
BetRivers +285 -375
DraftKings +310 -395
ESPN BET +300 -400
Fanatics +310 -400
FanDuel +290 -360
Hard Rock Bet +300 -425
Novig +335 -344
Caesars +278 -355

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cavaliers −9.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
Cleveland Cavaliers covered −9.5
Total · closing
O/U 240.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 239.5
Under 240.5 (232 scored)
Spread by book WizardsCavaliers
BetMGM +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
BetRivers +9.5 -107 −9.5 -114
DraftKings +9.5 -108 −9.5 -112
ESPN BET +9.5 -115 −9.5 -105
Fanatics +9.5 -105 −9.5 -115
FanDuel +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
Caesars +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
BetRivers 238.5 -115 238.5 -106
DraftKings 240.5 -108 240.5 -112
ESPN BET 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
Fanatics 240 -110 240 -110
FanDuel 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 240.5 -110 240.5 -110
Caesars 239.5 -115 239.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Washington WizardsCleveland Cavaliers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 23.6% 76.4%
Best book price incl. vig 23.0% 77.5%
Kalshi contract price 22.5% 77.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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