Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors

All Orlando Magic predictions · All Toronto Raptors predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 7:42 PM · Final: 99-129

The model's call
Toronto Raptors to win
Model confidence 63.6%
Books consensus 63.6%
Result Toronto Raptors won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Orlando MagicToronto Raptors
BetMGM +170 -210
BetRivers +165 -200
DraftKings +160 -192
ESPN BET +160 -190
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +164 -196
Hard Rock Bet +165 -200
Novig +170 -174
Caesars +162 -195

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Raptors −5.5
priced 48.3% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Raptors −4.5
Toronto Raptors covered −5.5
Total · closing
O/U 224.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 223.5
Over 224.5 (228 scored)
Spread by book MagicRaptors
BetMGM +5.5 -118 −5.5 -102
BetRivers +5.5 -117 −5.5 -105
DraftKings +5.5 -118 −5.5 -102
ESPN BET +5.5 -120 −5.5 +100
Fanatics +5 -110 −5 -110
FanDuel +4.5 -105 −4.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +4.5 -105 −4.5 -115
Caesars +5 -110 −5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 225.5 -105 225.5 -115
BetRivers 224.5 -107 224.5 -114
DraftKings 224.5 -115 224.5 -105
ESPN BET 224.5 -115 224.5 -105
Fanatics 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Caesars 224.5 -115 224.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Orlando MagicToronto Raptors
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.4% 63.6%
Best book price incl. vig 37.0% 63.5%
Kalshi contract price 36.9% 63.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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