Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons

All Charlotte Hornets predictions · All Detroit Pistons predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 7:11 PM · Final: 89-97

The model's call
Detroit Pistons to win
Model confidence 71.4%
Books consensus 71.4%
Result Detroit Pistons won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Charlotte HornetsDetroit Pistons
BetMGM +230 -295
BetRivers +235 -295
DraftKings +235 -290
ESPN BET +225 -275
Fanatics +230 -285
FanDuel +235 -290
Hard Rock Bet +240 -300
Novig +245 -251
Caesars +235 -292

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Pistons −7.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
Detroit Pistons covered −7.5
Total · closing
O/U 212.5
priced 50.3% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 216.5
Under 212.5 (186 scored)
Spread by book HornetsPistons
BetMGM +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
BetRivers +7.5 -107 −7.5 -114
DraftKings +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
ESPN BET +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Fanatics +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
FanDuel +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
Caesars +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 213.5 -110 213.5 -118
BetRivers 212.5 -113 212.5 -108
DraftKings 212.5 -110 212.5 -110
ESPN BET 212.5 -105 212.5 -115
Fanatics 213 -110 213 -110
FanDuel 212.5 -114 212.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 212.5 -115 212.5 -105
Caesars 212.5 -110 212.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Charlotte HornetsDetroit Pistons
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.6% 71.4%
Best book price incl. vig 29.0% 71.5%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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