Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls

All New York Knicks predictions · All Chicago Bulls predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 8:11 PM · Final: 133-127

The model's call
New York Knicks to win
Model confidence 70.5%
Books consensus 70.5%
Result New York Knicks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York KnicksChicago Bulls
BetMGM -285 +225
BetRivers -275 +215
DraftKings -278 +225
ESPN BET -275 +225
Fanatics -280 +225
FanDuel -260 +215
Hard Rock Bet -275 +230
Novig -257 +251
Caesars -285 +228

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Knicks −7.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Chicago Bulls covered +7.5
Total · closing
O/U 233.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 234.5
Over 233.5 (260 scored)
Spread by book KnicksBulls
BetMGM −7.5 -105 +7.5 -115
BetRivers −7.5 -109 +7.5 -112
DraftKings −6.5 -118 +6.5 -102
ESPN BET −6.5 -120 +6.5 +100
Fanatics −7.5 -105 +7.5 -115
FanDuel −7.5 -104 +7.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet −7.5 -115 +7.5 -105
Caesars −7.5 -105 +7.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
BetRivers 233.5 -114 233.5 -108
DraftKings 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
ESPN BET 233.5 -115 233.5 -105
Fanatics 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
FanDuel 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 232.5 -115 232.5 -105
Caesars 233.5 -110 233.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York KnicksChicago Bulls
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 70.5% 29.5%
Best book price incl. vig 72.0% 28.5%
Kalshi contract price 71.5% 28.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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