Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Lakers at Los Angeles Clippers

All Los Angeles Lakers predictions · All Los Angeles Clippers predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 10:40 PM · Final: 103-87

The model's call
Los Angeles Clippers to win
Model confidence 50.4%
Books consensus 50.4%
Result Los Angeles Lakers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles LakersLos Angeles Clippers
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers -114 -106
DraftKings -108 -112
ESPN BET -110 -110
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -106 -110
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Novig +102 -104
Caesars -110 -110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Clippers −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Lakers −5.5
Los Angeles Lakers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 224.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 227.5
Under 224.5 (190 scored)
Spread by book LakersClippers
BetMGM +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
BetRivers −0.5 -114 +0.5 -107
DraftKings +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
ESPN BET +1.5 -120 −1.5 +100
Fanatics +1 -110 −1 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -114 −1.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Caesars −1 +100 +1 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
BetRivers 224.5 -114 224.5 -107
DraftKings 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
ESPN BET 223.5 -110 223.5 -110
Fanatics 224 -110 224 -110
FanDuel 224.5 -108 224.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet 224.5 -110 224.5 -110
Caesars 224 -110 224 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles LakersLos Angeles Clippers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 49.6% 50.4%
Best book price incl. vig 49.5% 51.0%
Kalshi contract price 49.5% 50.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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