Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz

All San Antonio Spurs predictions · All Utah Jazz predictions

NBA · Wednesday, October 28, 2026 · 9:15 PM · Final: 117-111

The model's call
San Antonio Spurs to win
Model confidence 84.7%
Books consensus 84.7%
Result San Antonio Spurs won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Antonio SpursUtah Jazz
BetMGM -750 +525
BetRivers -770 +525
DraftKings -750 +525
ESPN BET -800 +500
Fanatics -750 +525
FanDuel -700 +500
Hard Rock Bet -800 +550
Novig -567 +545
Caesars -700 +500

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Spurs −13.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Spurs −12.5
Utah Jazz covered +13.5
Total · closing
O/U 232.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 234.5
Under 232.5 (228 scored)
Spread by book SpursJazz
BetMGM −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
BetRivers −13.5 -114 +13.5 -107
DraftKings −13.5 -112 +13.5 -108
ESPN BET −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
Fanatics −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
FanDuel −14.5 -105 +14.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −13.5 -115 +13.5 -105
Caesars −14 -110 +14 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
BetRivers 232.5 -108 232.5 -113
DraftKings 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
ESPN BET 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Fanatics 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
FanDuel 232.5 -112 232.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Caesars 231.5 -115 231.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Antonio SpursUtah Jazz
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 84.7% 15.3%
Best book price incl. vig 85.0% 15.4%
Kalshi contract price 85.5% 14.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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