Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins

All Utah Mammoth predictions · All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 7:09 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Utah Mammoth to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Utah Mammoth won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Utah MammothPittsburgh Penguins
BetMGM -130 +110
BetRivers -137 +115
DraftKings -130 +110
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -130 +108
Hard Rock Bet -135 +105
Novig -120 +115
Caesars -130 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Mammoth −1.5
priced 34.5% to cover · 7 books
Pittsburgh Penguins covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 55.8% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book MammothPenguins
BetMGM −1.5 +180 +1.5 -220
BetRivers −1.5 +170 +1.5 -215
DraftKings −1.5 +170 +1.5 -205
ESPN BET −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +175 +1.5 -220
FanDuel −1.5 +176 +1.5 -220
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +175 +1.5 -230
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -145 6.5 +120
BetRivers 6.5 -148 6.5 +117
DraftKings 6.5 -135 6.5 +114
ESPN BET 6.5 -135 6.5 +115
Fanatics 6.5 -140 6.5 +115
FanDuel 6.5 -140 6.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 6.5 -150 6.5 +118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Utah MammothPittsburgh Penguins
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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