Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings

All Chicago Blackhawks predictions · All Detroit Red Wings predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 7:38 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
Detroit Red Wings to win
Model confidence 58.8%
Books consensus 58.8%
Result Detroit Red Wings won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago BlackhawksDetroit Red Wings
BetMGM +135 -160
BetRivers +132 -157
DraftKings +136 -162
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +130 -155
FanDuel +130 -156
Hard Rock Bet +120 -155
Novig +147 -150
Caesars +134 -159

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Red Wings −1.5
priced 36.2% to cover · 7 books
Detroit Red Wings covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 51.7% over · 8 books
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book BlackhawksRed Wings
BetMGM +1.5 -190 −1.5 +155
BetRivers +1.5 -205 −1.5 +163
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
ESPN BET +1.5 -215 −1.5 +175
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -205 −1.5 +164
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -210 −1.5 +160
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -130 5.5 +105
DraftKings 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
FanDuel 5.5 -118 5.5 -104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -121 5.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago BlackhawksDetroit Red Wings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 41.2% 58.8%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.0%
Kalshi contract price 40.7% 59.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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