Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Boston Bruins at St Louis Blues

All Boston Bruins predictions · All St Louis Blues predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 1-4

The model's call
St Louis Blues to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result St Louis Blues won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Boston BruinsSt Louis Blues
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers -105 -113
DraftKings -105 -115
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel +100 -120
Hard Rock Bet -110 -120
Novig +106 -108
Caesars -105 -115

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Blues −1.5
priced 31.5% to cover · 7 books
St Louis Blues covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 53.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 5.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book BruinsBlues
BetMGM +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
BetRivers +1.5 -295 −1.5 +225
DraftKings +1.5 -250 −1.5 +205
ESPN BET +1.5 -325 −1.5 +220
Fanatics +1.5 -255 −1.5 +200
FanDuel +1.5 -250 −1.5 +198
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -300 −1.5 +200
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -102 6 -118
BetRivers 5.5 -132 5.5 +106
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
ESPN BET 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -135 5.5 +110
FanDuel 5.5 -130 5.5 +106
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 6 +102 6 -125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Boston BruinsSt Louis Blues
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 48.5% 51.9%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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