Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Islanders at Minnesota Wild

All New York Islanders predictions · All Minnesota Wild predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 8:08 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Minnesota Wild to win
Model confidence 65.3%
Books consensus 65.3%
Result New York Islanders won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York IslandersMinnesota Wild
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +163 -195
DraftKings +180 -218
ESPN BET +170 -200
Fanatics +185 -225
FanDuel +176 -215
Hard Rock Bet +145 -190
Novig +199 -208
Caesars +175 -210

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Wild −1.5
priced 42.8% to cover · 7 books
New York Islanders covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 52.0% over · 8 books
Over 5.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book IslandersWild
BetMGM +1.5 -135 −1.5 +110
BetRivers +1.5 -167 −1.5 +135
DraftKings +1.5 -148 −1.5 +124
ESPN BET +1.5 -155 −1.5 +130
Fanatics +1.5 -140 −1.5 +115
FanDuel +1.5 -140 −1.5 +114
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
BetRivers 5.5 -112 5.5 -112
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
ESPN BET 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -120 5.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -115 5.5 -105
Caesars 5.5 -121 5.5 -102

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York IslandersMinnesota Wild
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.7% 65.3%
Best book price incl. vig 33.4% 65.5%
Kalshi contract price 33.5% 66.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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