Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Buffalo Sabres at Anaheim Ducks

All Buffalo Sabres predictions · All Anaheim Ducks predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 7-6

The model's call
Buffalo Sabres to win
Model confidence 58.7%
Books consensus 58.7%
Result Buffalo Sabres won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Buffalo SabresAnaheim Ducks
BetMGM -145 +120
BetRivers -141 +118
DraftKings -162 +136
ESPN BET -165 +140
Fanatics -165 +135
FanDuel -154 +128
Hard Rock Bet -155 +120
Novig -150 +147
Caesars -158 +132

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Sabres −1.5
priced 37.4% to cover · 7 books
Anaheim Ducks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 54.6% over · 8 books
Over 6.5 (13 scored)
Spread by book SabresDucks
BetMGM −1.5 +165 +1.5 -200
BetRivers −1.5 +165 +1.5 -210
DraftKings −1.5 +154 +1.5 -185
ESPN BET −1.5 +150 +1.5 -180
Fanatics −1.5 +155 +1.5 -190
FanDuel −1.5 +152 +1.5 -188
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -130 6.5 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -130 6.5 +106
DraftKings 6.5 -135 6.5 +114
ESPN BET 6.5 -130 6.5 +110
Fanatics 6.5 -135 6.5 +110
FanDuel 6.5 -134 6.5 +110
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 6.5 -138 6.5 +111

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Buffalo SabresAnaheim Ducks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 58.7% 41.3%
Best book price incl. vig 58.5% 40.5%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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