Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Ottawa Senators at Los Angeles Kings

All Ottawa Senators predictions · All Los Angeles Kings predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 5-6

The model's call
Ottawa Senators to win
Model confidence 53.2%
Books consensus 53.2%
Result Los Angeles Kings won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Ottawa SenatorsLos Angeles Kings
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -125 +106
DraftKings -125 +105
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -120 +100
Hard Rock Bet -130 +100
Novig -120 +117
Caesars -127 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Senators −1.5
priced 31.7% to cover · 7 books
opened Kings −1.5
Los Angeles Kings covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 5.5
priced 53.2% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Over 5.5 (11 scored)
Spread by book SenatorsKings
BetMGM −1.5 +200 +1.5 -250
BetRivers −1.5 +195 +1.5 -250
DraftKings −1.5 +200 +1.5 -245
ESPN BET −1.5 +210 +1.5 -260
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +210 +1.5 -265
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 +100 6 -120
BetRivers 5.5 -132 5.5 +106
DraftKings 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
ESPN BET 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
Fanatics 5.5 -125 5.5 +105
FanDuel 5.5 -128 5.5 +104
Hard Rock Bet 5.5 -120 5.5 +100
Caesars 6 -104 6 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Ottawa SenatorsLos Angeles Kings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.2% 46.8%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 46.1%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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