Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks

All Vancouver Canucks predictions · All San Jose Sharks predictions

NHL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
San Jose Sharks to win
Model confidence 60.2%
Books consensus 60.2%
Result San Jose Sharks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Vancouver CanucksSan Jose Sharks
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +143 -175
DraftKings +140 -166
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +140 -170
Hard Rock Bet +130 -170
Novig +153 -156
Caesars +143 -170

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Sharks −1.5
priced 39.8% to cover · 7 books
Vancouver Canucks covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 6.5
priced 55.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 6.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book CanucksSharks
BetMGM +1.5 -160 −1.5 +135
BetRivers +1.5 -180 −1.5 +143
DraftKings +1.5 -166 −1.5 +140
ESPN BET +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -170 −1.5 +140
FanDuel +1.5 -158 −1.5 +128
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -185 −1.5 +140
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7 +110 7 -145
BetRivers 6.5 -137 6.5 +110
DraftKings 6.5 -142 6.5 +120
ESPN BET 6.5 -135 6.5 +115
Fanatics 6.5 -140 6.5 +115
FanDuel 6.5 -142 6.5 +116
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -145 6.5 +115
Caesars 7 +112 7 -138

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Vancouver CanucksSan Jose Sharks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.8% 60.2%
Best book price incl. vig 39.5% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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