Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Memphis Grizzlies at Portland Trail Blazers

All Memphis Grizzlies predictions · All Portland Trail Blazers predictions

NBA · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 10:13 PM · Final: 124-103

The model's call
Portland Trail Blazers to win
Model confidence 71.8%
Books consensus 71.8%
Result Memphis Grizzlies won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Memphis GrizzliesPortland Trail Blazers
BetMGM +240 -300
BetRivers +240 -305
DraftKings +230 -285
ESPN BET +220 -270
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +245 -300
Hard Rock Bet +240 -300
Novig +251 -264
Caesars +260 -335

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Trail Blazers −7.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
Memphis Grizzlies covered +7.5
Total · closing
O/U 233.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
Under 233.5 (227 scored)
Spread by book GrizzliesTrail Blazers
BetMGM +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
BetRivers +8.5 -115 −8.5 -106
DraftKings +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
ESPN BET +7.5 -115 −7.5 -105
Fanatics +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
FanDuel +8.5 -115 −8.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +7.5 +100 −7.5 -120
Caesars +8 -115 −8 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 233.5 -105 233.5 -115
BetRivers 233.5 -113 233.5 -108
DraftKings 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
ESPN BET 232.5 -110 232.5 -110
Fanatics 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
FanDuel 232.5 -114 232.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 233.5 -110 233.5 -110
Caesars 234 -105 234 -115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Memphis GrizzliesPortland Trail Blazers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.2% 71.8%
Best book price incl. vig 27.8% 72.5%
Kalshi contract price 27.5% 72.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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