Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks

All Cleveland Cavaliers predictions · All Atlanta Hawks predictions

NBA · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 8:10 PM · Final: 111-114

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 51.7%
Books consensus 51.7%
Result Atlanta Hawks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Cleveland CavaliersAtlanta Hawks
BetMGM -102 -118
BetRivers -108 -113
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +100 -120
FanDuel -102 -116
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Novig +108 -111
Caesars +100 -120

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Hawks −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
Atlanta Hawks covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 237.5
priced 50.4% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 239.5
Under 237.5 (225 scored)
Spread by book CavaliersHawks
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
BetRivers +0.5 -108 −0.5 -113
DraftKings +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Caesars +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 238.5 -105 238.5 -115
BetRivers 237.5 -114 237.5 -107
DraftKings 237.5 -112 237.5 -108
ESPN BET 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Fanatics 238 -110 238 -110
FanDuel 237.5 -114 237.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 237.5 -110 237.5 -110
Caesars 238 -110 238 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Cleveland CavaliersAtlanta Hawks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.3% 51.7%
Best book price incl. vig 48.1% 52.6%
Kalshi contract price 47.5% 52.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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