Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Jersey Devils at Vegas Golden Knights

All New Jersey Devils predictions · All Vegas Golden Knights predictions

NHL · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 6:10 PM

The model's call
Vegas Golden Knights to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book New Jersey DevilsVegas Golden Knights
BetMGM -105 -115
BetRivers -104 -115
DraftKings -105 -115
ESPN BET -105 -115
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel -110 -110
Hard Rock Bet -105 -115
Novig +104 -108
Caesars -102 -117

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Golden Knights −1.5
priced 30.8% to cover · 6 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 45.8% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book DevilsGolden Knights
BetMGM +1.5 -250 −1.5 +200
BetRivers +1.5 -278 −1.5 +220
DraftKings +1.5 -265 −1.5 +215
ESPN BET +1.5 -275 −1.5 +200
Fanatics +1.5 -255 −1.5 +200
FanDuel +1.5 -280 −1.5 +220
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +200 +1.5 -300
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -118 6 -102
BetRivers 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
ESPN BET 6.5 +115 6.5 -135
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +108 6.5 -132
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 +105 6.5 -130
Caesars 6 -120 6 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue New Jersey DevilsVegas Golden Knights
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.9% 51.1%
Best book price incl. vig 49.0% 51.9%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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