Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Kraken at Calgary Flames

All Seattle Kraken predictions · All Calgary Flames predictions

NHL · Friday, October 30, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Seattle Kraken to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Seattle KrakenCalgary Flames
BetMGM -118 -102
BetRivers -115 -103
DraftKings -115 -105
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -120 +100
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Novig -104 +102
Caesars -115 -105

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Kraken −1.5
priced 31.7% to cover · 7 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.4% over · 8 books
Spread by book KrakenFlames
BetMGM −1.5 +195 +1.5 -235
BetRivers −1.5 +210 +1.5 -275
DraftKings −1.5 +210 +1.5 -258
ESPN BET −1.5 +210 +1.5 -260
Fanatics −1.5 +200 +1.5 -255
FanDuel −1.5 +198 +1.5 -250
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +180 +1.5 -250
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
BetRivers 6.5 +100 6.5 -124
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
ESPN BET 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -104 6.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
Caesars 6.5 -103 6.5 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Seattle KrakenCalgary Flames
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 51.0% 49.5%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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