Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Edmonton Oilers at New York Islanders

All Edmonton Oilers predictions · All New York Islanders predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 2:10 PM

The model's call
Edmonton Oilers to win
Model confidence 55.1%
Books consensus 55.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Edmonton OilersNew York Islanders
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -137 +115
DraftKings -135 +114
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +112
Novig -127 +120
Caesars -134 +114

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Oilers −1.5
priced 34.6% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.1% over · 5 books, 1 on another number
Spread by book OilersIslanders
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers −1.5 +180 +1.5 -235
DraftKings −1.5 +185 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +175 +1.5 -220
FanDuel −1.5 +172 +1.5 -215
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6 -125 6 +105
BetRivers 6.5 -106 6.5 -118
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
Fanatics 6.5 +100 6.5 -120
FanDuel 6.5 +100 6.5 -122
Caesars 6.5 -103 6.5 -121

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Edmonton OilersNew York Islanders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 55.1% 44.9%
Best book price incl. vig 55.9% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 55.0% 45.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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