Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 7:06 PM
The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 54.5%
Books consensus 54.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| BetRivers | +120 | -143 |
| DraftKings | +109 | -131 |
| ESPN BET | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +110 | -135 |
| Caesars | +110 | -130 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 45.5% | 56.5% |
| Kalshi contract price | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Markets average | 45.0% | 55.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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