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Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, July 21, 2026 · 7:06 PM

The model's call
New York Yankees to win
Model confidence 57.3%
Books consensus 57.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Yankees
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +130 -157
DraftKings +123 -149
ESPN BET +125 -145
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +126 -148
Hard Rock Bet +125 -155
Caesars +122 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Pittsburgh PiratesNew York Yankees
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.7% 57.3%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 59.2%
Kalshi contract price 42.0% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Markets average 42.2% 57.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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