Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks

All Ottawa Senators predictions · All San Jose Sharks predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 4:10 PM

The model's call
Ottawa Senators to win
Model confidence 54.7%
Books consensus 54.7%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Ottawa SenatorsSan Jose Sharks
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -130 +110
DraftKings -135 +114
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -134 +112
Novig -127 +122
Caesars -129 +109

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Senators −1.5
priced 34.0% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 50.6% over · 6 books
Spread by book SenatorsSharks
BetMGM −1.5 +170 +1.5 -210
BetRivers −1.5 +185 +1.5 -235
DraftKings −1.5 +185 +1.5 -225
Fanatics −1.5 +180 +1.5 -225
FanDuel −1.5 +168 +1.5 -210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
BetRivers 6.5 -117 6.5 -107
DraftKings 6.5 -112 6.5 -108
Fanatics 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
FanDuel 6.5 -114 6.5 -106
Caesars 6.5 -117 6.5 -106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Ottawa SenatorsSan Jose Sharks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.7% 45.3%
Best book price incl. vig 55.9% 45.0%
Kalshi contract price 55.5% 44.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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