Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Pittsburgh Penguins at Montréal Canadiens

All Pittsburgh Penguins predictions · All Montréal Canadiens predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Montréal Canadiens to win
Model confidence 57.8%
Books consensus 57.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Pittsburgh PenguinsMontréal Canadiens
BetMGM +125 -155
BetRivers +128 -152
DraftKings +130 -155
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +126 -152
Novig +133 -135
Caesars +130 -154

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Canadiens −1.5
priced 36.9% to cover · 5 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 52.0% over · 6 books
Spread by book PenguinsCanadiens
BetMGM +1.5 -185 −1.5 +150
BetRivers +1.5 -205 −1.5 +160
DraftKings +1.5 -192 −1.5 +160
Fanatics +1.5 -200 −1.5 +160
FanDuel +1.5 -192 −1.5 +154
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
BetRivers 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
DraftKings 6.5 -118 6.5 -102
Fanatics 6.5 -120 6.5 +100
FanDuel 6.5 -122 6.5 +100
Caesars 6.5 -121 6.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Pittsburgh PenguinsMontréal Canadiens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.2% 57.8%
Best book price incl. vig 42.9% 57.4%
Kalshi contract price 41.7% 58.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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