Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche

All Calgary Flames predictions · All Colorado Avalanche predictions

NHL · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 10:10 PM

The model's call
Colorado Avalanche to win
Model confidence 76.1%
Books consensus 76.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Calgary FlamesColorado Avalanche
BetMGM +300 -400
BetRivers +300 -385
DraftKings +310 -395
Fanatics +275 -350
FanDuel +315 -410
Novig +308 -335
Caesars +300 -390

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Avalanche −1.5
priced 58.6% to cover · 4 books, 1 on another number
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 48.9% over · 6 books
Spread by book FlamesAvalanche
BetMGM +1.5 +125 −1.5 -155
BetRivers +1.5 +114 −1.5 -141
DraftKings +1.5 +136 −1.5 -162
Fanatics +2.5 -125 −2.5 +105
FanDuel +1.5 +138 −1.5 -170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
BetRivers 6.5 -108 6.5 -115
DraftKings 6.5 -102 6.5 -118
Fanatics 6.5 -105 6.5 -115
FanDuel 6.5 -110 6.5 -110
Caesars 6.5 -105 6.5 -117

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Calgary FlamesColorado Avalanche
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 23.9% 76.1%
Best book price incl. vig 24.1% 77.0%
Kalshi contract price 24.5% 75.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record