Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans

All Atlanta Hawks predictions · All New Orleans Pelicans predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 7:10 PM

The model's call
Atlanta Hawks to win
Model confidence 60.8%
Books consensus 60.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Atlanta HawksNew Orleans Pelicans
BetMGM -175 +145
BetRivers -175 +138
DraftKings -170 +142
ESPN BET -170 +145
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -174 +146
Novig -163 +156
Caesars -175 +148

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Hawks −4.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 4 books, 3 on another number
opened Hawks −3.5
Total
O/U 239.5
priced 51.1% over · 4 books, 3 on another number
opened 238.5
Spread by book HawksPelicans
BetMGM −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
BetRivers −3.5 -114 +3.5 -107
DraftKings −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
ESPN BET −4.5 -105 +4.5 -115
Fanatics −4 -110 +4 -110
FanDuel −4.5 -110 +4.5 -110
Caesars −4 -110 +4 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 239.5 -115 239.5 -105
BetRivers 238.5 -112 238.5 -109
DraftKings 239.5 -115 239.5 -105
ESPN BET 239.5 -115 239.5 -105
Fanatics 240 -110 240 -110
FanDuel 239.5 -115 239.5 -105
Caesars 240 -110 240 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Atlanta HawksNew Orleans Pelicans
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.8% 39.2%
Best book price incl. vig 62.0% 39.1%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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