Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies

All Sacramento Kings predictions · All Memphis Grizzlies predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:10 PM

The model's call
Memphis Grizzlies to win
Model confidence 78.8%
Books consensus 78.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Sacramento KingsMemphis Grizzlies
BetMGM +360 -475
BetRivers +340 -480
DraftKings +340 -440
ESPN BET +340 -450
Fanatics +360 -475
FanDuel +340 -430
Novig +400 -426
Caesars +360 -480

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Grizzlies −10.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 5 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 234.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book KingsGrizzlies
BetMGM +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
BetRivers +10.5 -112 −10.5 -109
DraftKings +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
ESPN BET +10.5 -105 −10.5 -115
Fanatics +11 -110 −11 -110
FanDuel +10.5 -110 −10.5 -110
Caesars +11 -110 −11 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 234.5 -105 234.5 -115
BetRivers 234.5 -114 234.5 -107
DraftKings 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
ESPN BET 234.5 -110 234.5 -110
Fanatics 234 -110 234 -110
FanDuel 234.5 -104 234.5 -118
Caesars 234 -110 234 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Sacramento KingsMemphis Grizzlies
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 21.2% 78.8%
Best book price incl. vig 20.0% 81.0%
Kalshi contract price 20.1% 79.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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