Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets

All Oklahoma City Thunder predictions · All Houston Rockets predictions

NBA · Saturday, October 31, 2026 · 8:40 PM

The model's call
Houston Rockets to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Oklahoma City ThunderHouston Rockets
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +125 -152
DraftKings +120 -142
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +118 -138
Hard Rock Bet +120 -145
Novig +125 -127
Caesars +122 -145

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Rockets −2.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Rockets −3.5
Total
O/U 218.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book ThunderRockets
BetMGM +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
BetRivers +2.5 -105 −2.5 -117
DraftKings +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
ESPN BET +2.5 -120 −2.5 +100
Fanatics +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -115 −2.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Caesars +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
BetRivers 217.5 -114 217.5 -107
DraftKings 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
ESPN BET 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
Fanatics 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
FanDuel 217.5 -115 217.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 218.5 -110 218.5 -110
Caesars 218.5 -110 218.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Oklahoma City ThunderHouston Rockets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.6% 56.4%
Best book price incl. vig 44.4% 55.9%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record