Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals

All Minnesota Wild predictions · All Washington Capitals predictions

NHL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 3:30 PM

The model's call
Washington Capitals to win
Model confidence 50.2%
Books consensus 50.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota WildWashington Capitals
BetRivers -107 -112
DraftKings -108 -112
Fanatics -110 -110
FanDuel -110 -110
Novig -113 -108
Caesars -107 -112

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Capitals −1.5
priced 30.7% to cover · 4 books
Total
O/U 6.5
priced 45.5% over · 5 books
Spread by book WildCapitals
BetRivers +1.5 -295 −1.5 +225
DraftKings +1.5 -258 −1.5 +210
Fanatics +1.5 -270 −1.5 +210
FanDuel +1.5 -265 −1.5 +210
Total by bookOverUnder
BetRivers 6.5 +108 6.5 -134
DraftKings 6.5 +110 6.5 -130
Fanatics 6.5 +110 6.5 -135
FanDuel 6.5 +110 6.5 -134
Caesars 6.5 +109 6.5 -134

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota WildWashington Capitals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 49.8% 50.2%
Best book price incl. vig 51.7% 51.9%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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